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The first Sagarin NCAA football ratings have been released
Posted by Thomas the Terrible on August 25, 2008
The first Sagarin poll has been released and if you notice is greatly differs from the AP & Coaches poll.
The poll which I linked to uses several formulas which I have no clue WTF they are talking about due to the fact I don’t have a doctrine in aerospace dynamics & quantum physics.
See below for more details:
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal and the ELO-CHESS is then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
RATING and PREDICTOR are now bayesian and the ELO-CHESS is now bayesian.
In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very politically correct”. However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO-CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
I would place all these formulas in this posting but honestly I don’t think I would have the room to do so. I’m only going to place the top 30 teams and let you decide for yourself if it is accurate. IMHO I don’t believe it is.
- Southern California
- LSU
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Florida
- Virginia Tech
- West Virginia
- Texas
- Georgia
- Auburn
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Tennessee
- California
- Louisville
- Penn State
- Missouri
- Boston College
- Clemson
- Wisconsin
- Arizona State
- BYU
- Texas Tech
- Oregon State
- Florida State
- Arkansas
- Boise State
- UCLA
- Kansas
- Utah
WTF is LSU ranked higher than Georgia? Why Boston College & Florida State is even ranked and why is Clemson ranked so low. I also wouldn’t place Arkansas in the top 50 at this point.
What are your thoughts on this? Speak now damnit!
Danometer said
It primarily a hang-over from last season. I would guess that it is at least 50% weighted from last season, probably closer to 75%.